CO129-512-1 Political situation in China- and Canton 30-11-1928 - 23-5-1929 — Page 22

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the two provinces.

The Kwangtung armies are by

As

no means united, the Eastern Command in particular being as likely to help as to resist an invasion. Moreover, the Kwangtung forces are inferior both in

training and equipment. If they resist the

Kwangsi invasion they can only do so successfully with the help of reinforcements from Nanking.

matters stand, it is doubtful whether Nanking can

afford to send these reinforcements. The various

provincial commanders, such as Ho Chien in Hunan are

too much occupied in looking after their own

districts to be able to spare men for this purpose

and the only unattached force, the notorious Fourth Army, is still needed on the Yangtsze to overawe the

defeated Hankow Army. Moreover, the danger of war

between Marshal Fêng Yü-hsiang and Nanking appears to

have come closer than ever. It is generally agreed that Fêng's neutrality in the recent warfare was bought by the offer of Shantung province; but after

the defeat of Hankow by a series of clever manoeuvres Marshal Chiang Kai-shek succeeded first in securing control of the railways of Shantung and finally in obtaining the withdrawal of such of Feng's troops as had entered the province and the appointment of his own adherents to all important official positions there. Many profess to believe that Fêng will be driven to fight, in order to prevent

himself from being eliminated altogether. All that need be said now is that should this happen the

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southern provinces must of necessity be left to settle their own affairs either by force or by

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negotiation.